I've decided to take a moment this Memorial Day to give thanks to the pleasant surprises the 2011 Cardinals have given me and my fellow fans. I'll briefly thank those who have done what they could to help out their country as well, my father, uncle and good friends included, before getting into all this baseball stuff. After all, this day isn't really about baseball, is it? Okay, you got me. Every day is about baseball.
-Colby Rasmus's discerning batting eye: The power hasn't entirely been there all season (not that a .450 SLG is anything to sneeze at from your center fielder), but the Colbster has been walking like a senior citizen at the mall. He's improved his already solid 11.8% walk rate from a year ago to 14.1%. Sounds like a number two hitter to me, Tony.
-Daniel Descalso's arm: There's a bit lacking in his bat, but he's even improving in that department. But for any of you who have had the pleasure of watching Danimal in action, you can attest to the fact that this guy has not only a powerful gun for an arm, but an accurate one. He's like the 21st century baseball-playing answer to Annie Oakley.
-Jaime Garcia's sweet peripherals: I've touched on this before, but Garcia's peripherals are finally in line with his stellar performance. Take that 11 earned run performance against the Rockies away and he's somewhere in the Cy Young discussion.
The young fellas in the 'pen: I love fast fastballs, and this team has a handful of guys that throw hard and miss bats. Watching Motte, Boggs, Sanchez and Salas deal all season has been quite a pleasure for a guy who has watched a lot of soft-tossing nobodies run in from the outfield over the past two decades.
Allen Craig: He looks like such a nice little hitter, a guy you could really dream on at the plate. There's no reason he can't be a good option on offense and improve his attributes in the field. I'm still not sure why he isn't at third with Descalso at second, but whatever. I'm happy to see Tony give him at-bats and hold back from trying to ink Doug Glanville to some sort of deal.
Number 12: How cool is it to see Lance Berkman wear the number Aaron Miles once wore and rake in it? I still have a gut-check reaction when I see that number standing in the on-deck circle. You know, the reaction that is quickly accompanied by vomit and a need for prescription pills. I'm quickly getting over that, though.
A giant contract working out: Matt Holliday may be signed for too long, but the return on these first couple of years makes me think the whole thing will be far from a wash. Plus he's on my fantasy team and hitting .344. That's always enjoyable.
Hope you all had a great weekend and incurred fewer broken toes than my wife. Best wishes!
Monday, May 30, 2011
Monday, May 23, 2011
First Place-ish
Since my last post, which was admittedly far too long ago, the Cardinals have ascended to the ranks of NL Central leaders and a 29-20 record. They have the largest run differential in the league and the best Pythagorean record. There are a lot of things to be grateful for, and I'll get to those, but first I need to vent once again about this team and what it's doing with its bullpen.
The only Achilles heel that's ever brought up nationally in regards to the 2011 Cardinals is the team's shaky bullpen, a unit that, as I've said before, would be far less shaky if the right personnel were in place. At this point, it's obvious who needs to be in the game when things really matter. Jason Motte, Eduardo Sanchez, Fernando Salas, and Mitch Boggs have all proven themselves to the point where they should be trusted. Sure, Salas has a track record of being merely acceptable. Sure, Sanchez walks too many at this stage in his career. Sure, Motte has just one real pitch. At this point, though, we need to throw all of that out and look at the results, all the while realizing that the peripherals back these guys up.
Notice how I didn't really have anything bad to say about Boggs? That's because there just isn't much to say. He's been very solid since 2010 and has two plus pitches that support his success. His strikeout rate remains right around a batter per inning, while his walk rate is under two per nine innings. What's not to like? Well, apparently quite a bit, as the Cardinals have sent the reliever packing for Triple-A Memphis so Skip Schumaker can return to the team and find ways to dropkick ground balls.
Wait. Really? I understand the team wants to carry 13 position players rather than 13 pitchers. I would, too. But can't the Redbirds' 12 pitching spots be utilized in a more constructive matter? Let's look closer at this bullpen. Boggs aside, we know Motte, Sanchez, and Salas are all staying on the roster. Add in the five members of the starting rotation and that leaves four pitching spots left to fill. Trever Miller, who looks a lot like a gas station attendant at the Kum 'n' Go near my house, has struggled mightily and walked more than double the men he's fanned. Despite this, he has a strong history of effectiveness against lefties and the sample size is small. This is no Franklin-style buttplosion. He should still be a member of this bullpen. I'm even cool with Brian Tallet, another lefty-stopper, keeping his job despite injuries and marginal results. Hey, we really need to have two left-handed options.
We're now left with two spots left and the following options to consider: Mitchell Boggs, Ryan Franklin, and Miguel Batista.
This isn't that hard. Boggs has outperformed both Franklin and Batista by leaps and bounds no matter what statistic you want to use. Well, unless you want to use pitcher wins, and I assure you, you don't.
Boggs: 3.66 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 2.84 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 8.69 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, .227 AVG against
Batista: 2.76 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 5.35 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, 5.51 K/9, 4.96 BB/9, .286 AVG against
Franklin: 9.20 ERA, 7.00 FIP, 5.24 xFIP, 1.98 WHIP, 3.07 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, .358 AVG against
I mean WOW. I don't even need to say anything. If ever numbers spoke for themselves, it's the numbers you see above. The only thing I can see holding the Cards back from making the decision that will help them not lose at baseball is that they didn't want to designate either of the old codgers listed below Boggs for assignment. You know what? I understand that Franklin's been a respectable member of the team's bullpen for the past three seasons, but this is the last year of his contract, h
e's already discussed retirement, and you're trying to run a successful baseball club here. Cut your losses and let the man go. Someone'll probably take a flier on him, anyway. I only hope that Franklin and Schumaker, who's just going to take away at-bats from cheaper and younger options with honest room for growth, have no place on this team in 2012.
I'm not here solely to complain, however. As a long-tenured baseball fan with a bit of a pessimistic outlook, I should really savor the good things as well. Let's start with Jaime Garcia. His first outing of the season set the tone for what was to come, as Garcia sits among the top 10 in the league in ERA, WHIP, WAR, FIP, xFIP, and BB/9. The gains he's provided are such a big reason that the Cardinals haven't seen a colossal downturn following the season-ending injury blow dealt to ace Adam Wainwright.
We're all aware of the hot starts from Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman. I think we're also all aware of what those hot starts mean. Holliday is likely to have a slightly better season than he did a year ago, but he's already an excellent player and among the best in the game. Berkman, in part thanks to looking less fatly, started off on an extreme tear that will likely dissipate but still leave his season looking fantastic when compared to his 2010. But what about Yadier Molina, everyone's favorite piss-and-vinegar backstop with an Indiana Jones whip for an arm? Yadi's hitting .333/.380/.493, good for a .371 wOBA! He's been worth nearly two wins above replacement already! This is a player whose career wOBA is .307! Can we really expect these gains to continue? Probably not, but it's sure been fun to watch. Molina has limited his strikeouts as usual, and his line drive percentage remains right around where it always is. If there's anything to take as a truly good sign, though, it's that he's hit the ball in the air more and more of his fly balls have left the yard. For one of the slowest players in baseball, that has to be considered a big positive.
The only Achilles heel that's ever brought up nationally in regards to the 2011 Cardinals is the team's shaky bullpen, a unit that, as I've said before, would be far less shaky if the right personnel were in place. At this point, it's obvious who needs to be in the game when things really matter. Jason Motte, Eduardo Sanchez, Fernando Salas, and Mitch Boggs have all proven themselves to the point where they should be trusted. Sure, Salas has a track record of being merely acceptable. Sure, Sanchez walks too many at this stage in his career. Sure, Motte has just one real pitch. At this point, though, we need to throw all of that out and look at the results, all the while realizing that the peripherals back these guys up.
Notice how I didn't really have anything bad to say about Boggs? That's because there just isn't much to say. He's been very solid since 2010 and has two plus pitches that support his success. His strikeout rate remains right around a batter per inning, while his walk rate is under two per nine innings. What's not to like? Well, apparently quite a bit, as the Cardinals have sent the reliever packing for Triple-A Memphis so Skip Schumaker can return to the team and find ways to dropkick ground balls.
Wait. Really? I understand the team wants to carry 13 position players rather than 13 pitchers. I would, too. But can't the Redbirds' 12 pitching spots be utilized in a more constructive matter? Let's look closer at this bullpen. Boggs aside, we know Motte, Sanchez, and Salas are all staying on the roster. Add in the five members of the starting rotation and that leaves four pitching spots left to fill. Trever Miller, who looks a lot like a gas station attendant at the Kum 'n' Go near my house, has struggled mightily and walked more than double the men he's fanned. Despite this, he has a strong history of effectiveness against lefties and the sample size is small. This is no Franklin-style buttplosion. He should still be a member of this bullpen. I'm even cool with Brian Tallet, another lefty-stopper, keeping his job despite injuries and marginal results. Hey, we really need to have two left-handed options.
We're now left with two spots left and the following options to consider: Mitchell Boggs, Ryan Franklin, and Miguel Batista.
This isn't that hard. Boggs has outperformed both Franklin and Batista by leaps and bounds no matter what statistic you want to use. Well, unless you want to use pitcher wins, and I assure you, you don't.
Boggs: 3.66 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 2.84 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 8.69 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, .227 AVG against
Batista: 2.76 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 5.35 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, 5.51 K/9, 4.96 BB/9, .286 AVG against
Franklin: 9.20 ERA, 7.00 FIP, 5.24 xFIP, 1.98 WHIP, 3.07 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, .358 AVG against
I mean WOW. I don't even need to say anything. If ever numbers spoke for themselves, it's the numbers you see above. The only thing I can see holding the Cards back from making the decision that will help them not lose at baseball is that they didn't want to designate either of the old codgers listed below Boggs for assignment. You know what? I understand that Franklin's been a respectable member of the team's bullpen for the past three seasons, but this is the last year of his contract, h
e's already discussed retirement, and you're trying to run a successful baseball club here. Cut your losses and let the man go. Someone'll probably take a flier on him, anyway. I only hope that Franklin and Schumaker, who's just going to take away at-bats from cheaper and younger options with honest room for growth, have no place on this team in 2012.I'm not here solely to complain, however. As a long-tenured baseball fan with a bit of a pessimistic outlook, I should really savor the good things as well. Let's start with Jaime Garcia. His first outing of the season set the tone for what was to come, as Garcia sits among the top 10 in the league in ERA, WHIP, WAR, FIP, xFIP, and BB/9. The gains he's provided are such a big reason that the Cardinals haven't seen a colossal downturn following the season-ending injury blow dealt to ace Adam Wainwright.
We're all aware of the hot starts from Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman. I think we're also all aware of what those hot starts mean. Holliday is likely to have a slightly better season than he did a year ago, but he's already an excellent player and among the best in the game. Berkman, in part thanks to looking less fatly, started off on an extreme tear that will likely dissipate but still leave his season looking fantastic when compared to his 2010. But what about Yadier Molina, everyone's favorite piss-and-vinegar backstop with an Indiana Jones whip for an arm? Yadi's hitting .333/.380/.493, good for a .371 wOBA! He's been worth nearly two wins above replacement already! This is a player whose career wOBA is .307! Can we really expect these gains to continue? Probably not, but it's sure been fun to watch. Molina has limited his strikeouts as usual, and his line drive percentage remains right around where it always is. If there's anything to take as a truly good sign, though, it's that he's hit the ball in the air more and more of his fly balls have left the yard. For one of the slowest players in baseball, that has to be considered a big positive.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Sigh
Is it just me, or are the Cardinals really 17-6? I just keep double taking every time I look at that 12-11 record sitting right beside a +30 run differential, a run differential that just so happens to the best in all of baseball. I felt throughout Tuesday night's 6-5 loss to the Lastros that the game was really firmly in hand. Yeah, I know the game was consistently close, but I just wasn't scared. I was going nuts after Lance Berkman's slap double drove in Matt Holliday because I honestly thought that run was all the Cards were going to need. After all, Mitch Boggs has pretty much been lights out all season. Turns out, he wasn't even that bad Tuesday night. This was no Franklin implosion wrought with jet plane home runs and laser tag line drives. This was, in fact, completely ridiculous. I feel no need to go on any longer about this game in paragraph form. I would likely to simply state that TLR needn't insta-pull Boggs from this role; with any luck he would've recorded save number four or at least pushed the game to extra innings.
Let us recount the bottom of the ninth inning of this awful baseball game I keep blathering on about.
-Brian Bogusevic, who had never played baseball until this particular game, accidentally hits a line drive into right field for a base hit.
-Yadier Molina slips into a narcolepsy fit and a ball skips off into the distance. That Boguasbvnlbi vadsl guy heads on down to second base.
-Michael Bourn bunts as usual. Mitchell Boggs plays hot potato and everyone gets to be on base.
-Mitchell Boggs throws a pitch eight feet and Molina has no idea what to do. That one guy scores, while Michael Bourn forgets he is allowed to run to second base. The game is tied without anyone having done anything at all.
-Angel Sanchez reaches out and burps a bloop single in front of Lance Berkman. Michael Bourn holds up at second. Despite having already made several outs, none are showing up on the scoreboard.
-Hunter Pence, owner of a fancy pants name, follows Angel Sanchez's lead and peeps a ball to the opposite field. The bases are loaded, no one is out, and no one is sure why any of this has happened. The Astro fans are excited despite the positively dreadful fact that they are Astro fans.
-Mitchell Boggs induces a pop-up out of the dead-phase bat of big, fat Carlos Lee. One down and I'm actually optimistic there will be free baseball.
-Mitchell Boggs dominates Bill Hall and forces him to hit into what would have been a double play if a shortstop was playing shortstop. Astros 6, Cardinals 5.
For me, these are among the most frustrating losses. The Astros accumulated the two runs they needed to win on the wings of four weak singles, a passed ball and a wild pitch. It's hard to place blame anywhere when Lady Luck was clearly wearing a green hat with a broken star on it. I'm optimistic the Cardinals will turn this dubious trend around, but it's getting old watching them drop games to bad teams in ugly ways. But hey, there's always tomorrow.
Let us recount the bottom of the ninth inning of this awful baseball game I keep blathering on about.
-Brian Bogusevic, who had never played baseball until this particular game, accidentally hits a line drive into right field for a base hit.
-Yadier Molina slips into a narcolepsy fit and a ball skips off into the distance. That Boguasbvnlbi vadsl guy heads on down to second base.
-Michael Bourn bunts as usual. Mitchell Boggs plays hot potato and everyone gets to be on base.
-Mitchell Boggs throws a pitch eight feet and Molina has no idea what to do. That one guy scores, while Michael Bourn forgets he is allowed to run to second base. The game is tied without anyone having done anything at all.
-Angel Sanchez reaches out and burps a bloop single in front of Lance Berkman. Michael Bourn holds up at second. Despite having already made several outs, none are showing up on the scoreboard.
-Hunter Pence, owner of a fancy pants name, follows Angel Sanchez's lead and peeps a ball to the opposite field. The bases are loaded, no one is out, and no one is sure why any of this has happened. The Astro fans are excited despite the positively dreadful fact that they are Astro fans.
-Mitchell Boggs induces a pop-up out of the dead-phase bat of big, fat Carlos Lee. One down and I'm actually optimistic there will be free baseball.
-Mitchell Boggs dominates Bill Hall and forces him to hit into what would have been a double play if a shortstop was playing shortstop. Astros 6, Cardinals 5.
For me, these are among the most frustrating losses. The Astros accumulated the two runs they needed to win on the wings of four weak singles, a passed ball and a wild pitch. It's hard to place blame anywhere when Lady Luck was clearly wearing a green hat with a broken star on it. I'm optimistic the Cardinals will turn this dubious trend around, but it's getting old watching them drop games to bad teams in ugly ways. But hey, there's always tomorrow.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Franklin Out as Closer, No Replacement Announced
St. Louis, MO-
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa announced Tuesday that Ryan Franklin, the team's closer since 2008, will be taken out of his role at least for the time being. Franklin has blown four of his five save opportunities and surrendered three home runs in his first 4 2/3 innings pitched in 2011. La Russa added that a concrete replacement for Franklin has not yet been determined.
"We're not sure what direction we're headed in yet," La Russa told the media in a temperamental tone. "Obviously Ryan's one of the best closers in this team's history, and he would probably make a fine President if elected, but I guess we need to go with another guy for now."
La Russa then muttered something about Franklin's struggles being center fielder Colby Rasmus' fault and mentioned that he had to return some video tapes. The Cardinal manager made this announcement with one of his eyes swollen shut, an ailment he attributes to an illness he picked up over the weekend.
"It's got nothing to do with this situation. No one punched me in the head, if that's what you're trying to imply," La Russa told reporters without having been asked.
La Russa added that Franklin took the move very well, and the he "probably wasn't going to dress in camouflage and fire shots at fans from the outfield."
The most likely candidate to get save opportunities in the interim is Mitchell Boggs, a starter-turned-reliever who relies on a mid-90s fastball and a slider to dispatch batters. Other possibilities include fireballer Jason Motte and rookie Eduardo Sanchez, who has struck out eight of the first 10 batters he has faced.
Boggs seemed optimistic that he would get the call if the opportunity presented itself.
"Yeah, I mean I really should, shouldn't I? I've been very dependable, and I know how to get guys to miss when we need to keep the ball out of play," Boggs said. "And if it's not me, we've got a few other guys who I know will get the job done better than Franky. He's terrible. It's really a miracle that he's made it this far tossing those wet gerbils up there for three years."
Motte also seemed to think the move was a good one, or at least reporters interpreted his statement that way.
"When the darkness descends over the moonlit plain, I will be there. My staff glows radiant under the force of the illumination. No mortal man could withstand the bloodshed brought forth by the running of the wolves."
While the move was taken well by all in the Cardinal clubhouse, not everyone sees the move as a positive change.
"Personally, I love what the guy does," Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp said. "I think he's outstanding, and I honestly wish we could play the Cardinals every day in one-run games. If it was up to me, Ryan Franklin wouldn't have to worry about his job one bit."
Only time will tell if the Cardinals made the right decision in lessening Franklin's role going forward. The team has yet to find itself in many close games, so it is possible that the team's new closer will not see action in the role for a while.
La Russa hinted that Franklin was likely to reclaim his closer position later in the season should things turn around for the 38 year-old.
"He'll be back where he belongs before long. Unless you guys want puppies pooping all over the infield all week, he'll be back."
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa announced Tuesday that Ryan Franklin, the team's closer since 2008, will be taken out of his role at least for the time being. Franklin has blown four of his five save opportunities and surrendered three home runs in his first 4 2/3 innings pitched in 2011. La Russa added that a concrete replacement for Franklin has not yet been determined.
"We're not sure what direction we're headed in yet," La Russa told the media in a temperamental tone. "Obviously Ryan's one of the best closers in this team's history, and he would probably make a fine President if elected, but I guess we need to go with another guy for now."
La Russa then muttered something about Franklin's struggles being center fielder Colby Rasmus' fault and mentioned that he had to return some video tapes. The Cardinal manager made this announcement with one of his eyes swollen shut, an ailment he attributes to an illness he picked up over the weekend.
"It's got nothing to do with this situation. No one punched me in the head, if that's what you're trying to imply," La Russa told reporters without having been asked.
La Russa added that Franklin took the move very well, and the he "probably wasn't going to dress in camouflage and fire shots at fans from the outfield."
The most likely candidate to get save opportunities in the interim is Mitchell Boggs, a starter-turned-reliever who relies on a mid-90s fastball and a slider to dispatch batters. Other possibilities include fireballer Jason Motte and rookie Eduardo Sanchez, who has struck out eight of the first 10 batters he has faced.
Boggs seemed optimistic that he would get the call if the opportunity presented itself.
"Yeah, I mean I really should, shouldn't I? I've been very dependable, and I know how to get guys to miss when we need to keep the ball out of play," Boggs said. "And if it's not me, we've got a few other guys who I know will get the job done better than Franky. He's terrible. It's really a miracle that he's made it this far tossing those wet gerbils up there for three years."
Motte also seemed to think the move was a good one, or at least reporters interpreted his statement that way.
"When the darkness descends over the moonlit plain, I will be there. My staff glows radiant under the force of the illumination. No mortal man could withstand the bloodshed brought forth by the running of the wolves."
While the move was taken well by all in the Cardinal clubhouse, not everyone sees the move as a positive change.
"Personally, I love what the guy does," Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp said. "I think he's outstanding, and I honestly wish we could play the Cardinals every day in one-run games. If it was up to me, Ryan Franklin wouldn't have to worry about his job one bit."
Only time will tell if the Cardinals made the right decision in lessening Franklin's role going forward. The team has yet to find itself in many close games, so it is possible that the team's new closer will not see action in the role for a while.
La Russa hinted that Franklin was likely to reclaim his closer position later in the season should things turn around for the 38 year-old.
"He'll be back where he belongs before long. Unless you guys want puppies pooping all over the infield all week, he'll be back."
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Home Runs and Blown Saves
Sure, this Dodgers series ended in ugly fashion, the same ugly fashion that so many games seem to have ended in as of late. But I honestly don't want to dwell on that. Based on TLR's post-game comments and, well, his entire managerial career, Ryan Franklin's going to hold on to his fancy closer title for as long as his invincibility cheat lasts. At least this time the disastrous death bomb to center field came at the hands (or bat, really) of Matt Kemp instead of Cameron Maybin. The glass is half-full, right?
Seriously, though, the glass has to seem half-full right now if you're a Cardinals fan. The team just finished up a streak in which they scored a minimum of eight runs for five consecutive games, something that hasn't happened in my lifetime. For that matter, it never happened in Jack Buck's lifetime! It was a truly fantastic streak that saw Albert start to heat up, Lance Berkman remind me why I took the life of multiple mobile phones when he opposed the Cardinals a half-decade ago, and Colby Rasmus show why he's so important to the future of this team. I certainly wouldn't have thought this around the start of that Giants series, but there's a lot to get excited about with this offense.
I'm going to back off for a moment and restate that I haven't changed my mind in relation to the big picture. I don't think this team is going to win more than 90 games at the most, and I still think this division is going to be quite the fight all the way to the finish line. What I am starting to realize is that Lance Berkman may be something of a bargain for this offense. No, he isn't going to slug .700, but who's to say he can't hearken back to his still-productive 2009? Colby hasn't done anything to disprove the hypothesis I and several others made prior to the season. You know, the one about him approaching stardom. David Freese looks totally competent at the plate and has played an outstanding third base. Skip Schumaker hit a home run that one night.* There's a lot to be excited about!
*At the exact moment that Skipper popped his little dinger my Mediacom connection was briefly lost and my TV screen blacked out. The signal returned just in time for me to see a three-run change in the game's score and everyone high-fiving Skip. Come on! What are the odds? I feel like I missed a lunar eclipse or something!
But wait! I'm not just excited about the offense. Between Bryan Augenstein's wiener and Brian Tallet's hand, the team was forced to call up both Fernando Salas and Eduardo Sanchez (no, not Kenny Powers' dad) as replacements. Salas has shown himself plenty competent, and Sanchez is most likely the best relief prospect in the organization. TLR probably just hates it, but his back is now against the wall and he has to prize talent over guts and Connect Four skills. Tallet is useful against lefties and all, but this bullpen excites me more. Some of that probably has to do with the fact that Sanchez has faced 10 fellas as a Big Leaguer. One of them got a base hit. Eight of them were sat forced back to the bench with their heads shaking at the hands of the Ed-ucator. (I'm still working on a better nickname, so don't even bother).
Going into Tuesday's series opener against the Expos, my over-exaggerating early-season self now comfortably believes this team is as good as he thought it was before it was Franklin'd on March 31. It's a nice change considering he was starting to see shades of the 2003 Tigers.
Seriously, though, the glass has to seem half-full right now if you're a Cardinals fan. The team just finished up a streak in which they scored a minimum of eight runs for five consecutive games, something that hasn't happened in my lifetime. For that matter, it never happened in Jack Buck's lifetime! It was a truly fantastic streak that saw Albert start to heat up, Lance Berkman remind me why I took the life of multiple mobile phones when he opposed the Cardinals a half-decade ago, and Colby Rasmus show why he's so important to the future of this team. I certainly wouldn't have thought this around the start of that Giants series, but there's a lot to get excited about with this offense.
I'm going to back off for a moment and restate that I haven't changed my mind in relation to the big picture. I don't think this team is going to win more than 90 games at the most, and I still think this division is going to be quite the fight all the way to the finish line. What I am starting to realize is that Lance Berkman may be something of a bargain for this offense. No, he isn't going to slug .700, but who's to say he can't hearken back to his still-productive 2009? Colby hasn't done anything to disprove the hypothesis I and several others made prior to the season. You know, the one about him approaching stardom. David Freese looks totally competent at the plate and has played an outstanding third base. Skip Schumaker hit a home run that one night.* There's a lot to be excited about!
*At the exact moment that Skipper popped his little dinger my Mediacom connection was briefly lost and my TV screen blacked out. The signal returned just in time for me to see a three-run change in the game's score and everyone high-fiving Skip. Come on! What are the odds? I feel like I missed a lunar eclipse or something!
But wait! I'm not just excited about the offense. Between Bryan Augenstein's wiener and Brian Tallet's hand, the team was forced to call up both Fernando Salas and Eduardo Sanchez (no, not Kenny Powers' dad) as replacements. Salas has shown himself plenty competent, and Sanchez is most likely the best relief prospect in the organization. TLR probably just hates it, but his back is now against the wall and he has to prize talent over guts and Connect Four skills. Tallet is useful against lefties and all, but this bullpen excites me more. Some of that probably has to do with the fact that Sanchez has faced 10 fellas as a Big Leaguer. One of them got a base hit. Eight of them were sat forced back to the bench with their heads shaking at the hands of the Ed-ucator. (I'm still working on a better nickname, so don't even bother).
Going into Tuesday's series opener against the Expos, my over-exaggerating early-season self now comfortably believes this team is as good as he thought it was before it was Franklin'd on March 31. It's a nice change considering he was starting to see shades of the 2003 Tigers.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Patience and Impatience, TLR Style
Depending on who you are, it may seem like Tony La Russa has either the most or least patience of any human being on the planet. Somewhere between his ears (which are covered by anachronistic tufts of hair), TLR has information that could give us all the answers to some pivotal questions we've all been wondering for years.
For instance, Skip Schumaker definitively can not play second base, but here we are in his third season of making vague attempts to do so. La Russa must believe that one of these years he's going to turn into a non-hobbled Chase Utley out there. And what about Ryan Franklin? Sure, the saves are there, but most of us without PCP addictions realize saves don't really matter. More concerning is the fact that Franklin will never be able to get a strikeout when he needs it, fizzles near the end of every season, and looks ridiculous. Also, he wants to be able to keep his guns in the clubhouse, and there's no telling whether or not he would try to "hunt" all of the teams with animal
names.
On the opposite side of the spectrum we have TLR as the hot-headed, irrational antagonist. He benches Colby Rasmus because they aren't best friends, pulls Jason Motte after one blown save on opening day, and refuses to give David Freese the real third base starting job even though he deserves it by all accounts.
Before this next series against the Giants, I just want to simplify things a bit. Let's just play Descalso at second and bench Skip as a theoretical super-sub who can play shoddy defense and slap the occasional butt-squeak single from nearly anywhere on the field. Let David Freese seriously play third base; he's looked spectacular over there and he should be good for a bit of batting average, a few walks, and the occasional home run. Quit letting Jon Jay try to replace Matt Holliday. Don't even do it for one second. Allen Craig has a real bat in his hands, and I don't care about his glove because the Cardinals have yet to exceed a negative run total in six games so far this season. Oh, and I'm pretty sure Jon Jay hit .004 the last two months of 2010, has no power, and possesses two first names. I hate it when people have two first names.
And Tony, if you're going to stick to your guns and keep Ryan Franklin as your closer (which Ryan Franklin coincidentally loves to do), at least make sure you have the right guys (Motte, Boggs, Tallet and Miller versus lefties) in the game when stuff gets serious. Oh, and while we're at it, it's probably going to wind up being a good idea to move Kyle McClellan back to the bullpen and plug Lance Lynn into the rotation. I hope I'm wrong, I really do, but I don't think K-Mac has many more gems in his bag.
It's strange to do so much complaining on an off-day, but I needed to vent before I watch the Cards try and hit Jonathan Sanchez after seeming thoroughly confused against Charlie Morton. If there's any consolation to be had, it's that the Dead Birds won't be seeing Tim Lincecum at any point in this series. He used his 13 strikeout card on someone else already.
Before I go, a quick mathematical venture:
TLR's ability to rescue dogs and hug them>TLR's ability to please me as a fan
For instance, Skip Schumaker definitively can not play second base, but here we are in his third season of making vague attempts to do so. La Russa must believe that one of these years he's going to turn into a non-hobbled Chase Utley out there. And what about Ryan Franklin? Sure, the saves are there, but most of us without PCP addictions realize saves don't really matter. More concerning is the fact that Franklin will never be able to get a strikeout when he needs it, fizzles near the end of every season, and looks ridiculous. Also, he wants to be able to keep his guns in the clubhouse, and there's no telling whether or not he would try to "hunt" all of the teams with animal
names.On the opposite side of the spectrum we have TLR as the hot-headed, irrational antagonist. He benches Colby Rasmus because they aren't best friends, pulls Jason Motte after one blown save on opening day, and refuses to give David Freese the real third base starting job even though he deserves it by all accounts.
Before this next series against the Giants, I just want to simplify things a bit. Let's just play Descalso at second and bench Skip as a theoretical super-sub who can play shoddy defense and slap the occasional butt-squeak single from nearly anywhere on the field. Let David Freese seriously play third base; he's looked spectacular over there and he should be good for a bit of batting average, a few walks, and the occasional home run. Quit letting Jon Jay try to replace Matt Holliday. Don't even do it for one second. Allen Craig has a real bat in his hands, and I don't care about his glove because the Cardinals have yet to exceed a negative run total in six games so far this season. Oh, and I'm pretty sure Jon Jay hit .004 the last two months of 2010, has no power, and possesses two first names. I hate it when people have two first names.
And Tony, if you're going to stick to your guns and keep Ryan Franklin as your closer (which Ryan Franklin coincidentally loves to do), at least make sure you have the right guys (Motte, Boggs, Tallet and Miller versus lefties) in the game when stuff gets serious. Oh, and while we're at it, it's probably going to wind up being a good idea to move Kyle McClellan back to the bullpen and plug Lance Lynn into the rotation. I hope I'm wrong, I really do, but I don't think K-Mac has many more gems in his bag.
It's strange to do so much complaining on an off-day, but I needed to vent before I watch the Cards try and hit Jonathan Sanchez after seeming thoroughly confused against Charlie Morton. If there's any consolation to be had, it's that the Dead Birds won't be seeing Tim Lincecum at any point in this series. He used his 13 strikeout card on someone else already.
Before I go, a quick mathematical venture:
TLR's ability to rescue dogs and hug them>TLR's ability to please me as a fan
Sunday, April 3, 2011
A Sincere Thanks to Jaime Garcia
Until today's masterful performance by sophomore Jaime Garcia, there was very little to be excited about in the Cardinals' opening series of 2011. It seemed like Garcia struck out a hitter to end like every inning of today's afternoon game against the Padres, and it felt very vindicating after watching various Padres drive in runs via walks and wet little turds tooting through the infield. A shutout from Garcia is exactly what I needed to feel just a little better going into the coming week. What I'm hoping is that Garcia can sustain some growth in his strikeout rate, cut the walks a bit, and wind up with an ERA around 3.00 the real way. (I'm not knocking his excellent 2010, I'm just saying that there are plenty of indicators (FIP, xFIP) that had his ERA closer to 4.00 than the resulting 2.70).
And I don't care that Garcia's outing came against the feeble Padre lineup, because the remainder of the staff (save big, angry Chris Carpenter) made that very lineup look like the '27 Yankees or something. While the individual numbers don't bear it, well except for those of Nick Hundley (?), the Padres scored 16 runs in the first two games of the series. This is a team that had Orlando Hudson hitting third on opening day!
This is a point I make each and every season, but let's get the high-leverage innings in the hands of the correct relievers. Franklin put the Opening Day game into extra innings by letting Cameron Maybin hit a ball into forever, and that was only after recording two outs on laser beams. It wasn't just Franklin and his swing-and-crush stuff, though. TLR really felt like, with the game on the line, Bryan Augenstein, Brian Tallet and Miguel Batista were the obvious answers. This isn't a big deal if it was just some sort of hair-brained, one-off experiment, but it's trouble if it's a genuine way of thinking. With McClellan moving into the rotation, it's even more imperative that important situations rest in the beards of Jason Motte and Mitch Boggs. Why wouldn't you trust your best relievers from a season ago (both of whom are armed with doomsday fastballs) more than a guy with limited minor league success, a probable left-handed specialist, and a second-rate poet?
Even more maddening is that poor Matt Holliday went to all the trouble of pounding a go-ahead home run only to later lose the game, his appendix, and at least two weeks of the season. That appendectomy had no right to happen to the Cardinals, not after Adam Wainwright's season role got reduced to giving boring interviews to Mark Grace.
So yes, it was a frustrating series. Even the Garcia game was fraught with a lack of scoring runs, which I hear is one of the methods to which a team can win at baseball. In fact, rumor has it that eight runs across three games will generally result in a loss total no fewer than two. The lineup looked fairly punchless, but Colby Rasmus showed all the signs of a man ready to take his game to the next level. He's bulked up, his approach at the plate was stellar, and he even whacked himself a triple. Oh, and he grew his hair back out to ensure he looks more like a baby.
Next up are the Pirates, so maybe the grass is about to greener on the side I prefer. The thought of seeing Albert stand 60 feet and six inches away from Charlie Morton has already brightened my outlook. More baseball! More baseball!
And I don't care that Garcia's outing came against the feeble Padre lineup, because the remainder of the staff (save big, angry Chris Carpenter) made that very lineup look like the '27 Yankees or something. While the individual numbers don't bear it, well except for those of Nick Hundley (?), the Padres scored 16 runs in the first two games of the series. This is a team that had Orlando Hudson hitting third on opening day!
This is a point I make each and every season, but let's get the high-leverage innings in the hands of the correct relievers. Franklin put the Opening Day game into extra innings by letting Cameron Maybin hit a ball into forever, and that was only after recording two outs on laser beams. It wasn't just Franklin and his swing-and-crush stuff, though. TLR really felt like, with the game on the line, Bryan Augenstein, Brian Tallet and Miguel Batista were the obvious answers. This isn't a big deal if it was just some sort of hair-brained, one-off experiment, but it's trouble if it's a genuine way of thinking. With McClellan moving into the rotation, it's even more imperative that important situations rest in the beards of Jason Motte and Mitch Boggs. Why wouldn't you trust your best relievers from a season ago (both of whom are armed with doomsday fastballs) more than a guy with limited minor league success, a probable left-handed specialist, and a second-rate poet?
Even more maddening is that poor Matt Holliday went to all the trouble of pounding a go-ahead home run only to later lose the game, his appendix, and at least two weeks of the season. That appendectomy had no right to happen to the Cardinals, not after Adam Wainwright's season role got reduced to giving boring interviews to Mark Grace.
So yes, it was a frustrating series. Even the Garcia game was fraught with a lack of scoring runs, which I hear is one of the methods to which a team can win at baseball. In fact, rumor has it that eight runs across three games will generally result in a loss total no fewer than two. The lineup looked fairly punchless, but Colby Rasmus showed all the signs of a man ready to take his game to the next level. He's bulked up, his approach at the plate was stellar, and he even whacked himself a triple. Oh, and he grew his hair back out to ensure he looks more like a baby.
Next up are the Pirates, so maybe the grass is about to greener on the side I prefer. The thought of seeing Albert stand 60 feet and six inches away from Charlie Morton has already brightened my outlook. More baseball! More baseball!
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Baseball 2011: A Brief Forecast
Here we are at the precipice of yet another glorious baseball season, and here I am making informed but likely wrong predictions about the coming campaign. The loss of Adam Wainwright makes me even more terrified of the Cardinals' chance in the Central, and I begrudgingly have to admit that I like the Reds to head back to the playoffs again. If only Brandon Phillips could just not get to go. I hate Brandon Phillips. He's mean. Below you will find my predictions on the final 2011 standings and major individual awards. I won't predict the Manager of the Year awards because, a) they're stupid, and b) I have no crystal ball that will tell me which team will go on a September tear to win 82 games.
*wild cards
American League:
EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees*
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
CENTRAL
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals
WEST
1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland A's
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Seattle Mariners
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
AL Cy Young: Max Scherzer
AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson
NATIONAL LEAGUE
EAST
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves*
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals
CENTRAL
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros
WEST
1. Colorado Rockies
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Josh Johnson
NL Rookie of the Year: Freddie Freeman
Once again, these predictions will probably only serve to show my idiocy after the season is over. I didn't do anything that was really surprising with the exception of picking Scherzer, who just keeps getting better and was lights-out in the second half of 2010, to win the AL Cy Young award. I went Red Sox over Yankees because they added like 1,000 wins in the off-season and the Yankees pretty much only helped themselves by adding a dominant reliever for $12 million a year. I went ahead and picked Pujols to take home his fourth MVP because, hey, he's pretty much a better bet than taking the field at this point.
I'm guessing that the World Series will wind up containing Boston and the Phillies, and I think Boston will go ahead and win as they do every three or four years now. I'll probably be rooting for the Phillies because the taste of the 2004 World Series comes back every time I see the David Ortiz in October.
Baseball in a few hours! I hope to be back on here typing about how the Cardinals looked so good that I'm throwing all my predictions out the window and picking them to win 140 games. If that sort of delirium sets in, there's a good chance they won by a touchdown and Albert hit a ball to Illinois.
*wild cards
American League:
EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees*
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
CENTRAL
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals
WEST
1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland A's
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Seattle Mariners
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
AL Cy Young: Max Scherzer
AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson
NATIONAL LEAGUE
EAST
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves*
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals
CENTRAL
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros
WEST
1. Colorado Rockies
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Josh Johnson
NL Rookie of the Year: Freddie Freeman
Once again, these predictions will probably only serve to show my idiocy after the season is over. I didn't do anything that was really surprising with the exception of picking Scherzer, who just keeps getting better and was lights-out in the second half of 2010, to win the AL Cy Young award. I went Red Sox over Yankees because they added like 1,000 wins in the off-season and the Yankees pretty much only helped themselves by adding a dominant reliever for $12 million a year. I went ahead and picked Pujols to take home his fourth MVP because, hey, he's pretty much a better bet than taking the field at this point.
I'm guessing that the World Series will wind up containing Boston and the Phillies, and I think Boston will go ahead and win as they do every three or four years now. I'll probably be rooting for the Phillies because the taste of the 2004 World Series comes back every time I see the David Ortiz in October.
Baseball in a few hours! I hope to be back on here typing about how the Cardinals looked so good that I'm throwing all my predictions out the window and picking them to win 140 games. If that sort of delirium sets in, there's a good chance they won by a touchdown and Albert hit a ball to Illinois.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Rough Draft, Part Two
Last night was home to my second preliminary draft, a straight draft featuring 12 teams. Once again, players from both leagues were fair game. The categories we play with are standard 5x5 rotisserie, and I was saddled with the 10th overall pick, a position I never care for. After all, I don't get (in theory) that great of a first pick and I don't get the benefit of two rapid-fire picks in a row like the first and last drafters do. Next I will list my team along with the round and overall pick I selected each player.
C Geovany Soto (12/135)
1B Joey Votto (1/10)
2B Rickie Weeks (5/58)
3B Pedro Alvarez (7/82)
SS Stephen Drew (8/87)
OF Matt Holliday (2/15)
OF Andrew McCutchen (3/34)
OF Jason Heyward (4/39)
UT Jay Bruce (6/63)
UT Jose Tabata (18/207)
SP Brett Anderson (9/106)
SP Shaun Marcum (10/111)
RP Brandon Lyon (15/178)
RP Fernando Rodney (16/183)
P Ricky Nolasco (13/154)
P Jeremy Hellickson (14/159)
P Brett Myers (17/202)
P Ted Lilly (11/130)
BN Jordan Zimmerman (19/226)
BN Ian Kennedy (20/231)
BN Brandon League (22/255)
BN Ryan Raburn (21/250)
BN Gaby Sanchez (23/274)
I'm always reluctant to draft pitchers early due to the seemingly high injury risk and the even more prevalent risk of unpredictability, but this is probably the first season where I've ever drafted nine position players before even looking at a hurler. The result was an extremely balanced offense and a pitching staff which should still be strong provided I can scrape together some saves and get lucky with wins. I made the decision to stockpile starters with breakout potential so that even if a couple of guys bust, I'll hopefully be covered.
Perhaps the most surprising pick I got to make was Votto 10th overall. I mean, wow! He out Pujols-ed Pujols last year and I expect similar production in 2011. So how did I get Votto so low in the first round? Well, Adrian Gonzalez went second overall, Carlos Gonzalez went eighth, and Carl Crawford went ninth. All great players to be sure, but I'm in the camp that prefers Votto at this point.
Taking Holliday 15th was something I might not normally do, but I love the reliable four category contribution with a few steals thrown in. With McCutchen and Heyward I gave myself two more outfielders who could provide value across the board, especially if they slip into their primes early. At this point I needed to fill my scarce positions as best I could, as all of the top options were off the board long ago and the mid-range options were starting to get taken as well.
Obviously my closing corps are terrible, but I like my peripheral-heavy starting staff. Even without wins, I expect my team to do well in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. The only one of my starting pitchers I hadn't even banked on getting was Marcum, though I like him and I'm far from disappointed.
C Geovany Soto (12/135)
1B Joey Votto (1/10)
2B Rickie Weeks (5/58)
3B Pedro Alvarez (7/82)
SS Stephen Drew (8/87)
OF Matt Holliday (2/15)
OF Andrew McCutchen (3/34)
OF Jason Heyward (4/39)
UT Jay Bruce (6/63)
UT Jose Tabata (18/207)
SP Brett Anderson (9/106)
SP Shaun Marcum (10/111)
RP Brandon Lyon (15/178)
RP Fernando Rodney (16/183)
P Ricky Nolasco (13/154)
P Jeremy Hellickson (14/159)
P Brett Myers (17/202)
P Ted Lilly (11/130)
BN Jordan Zimmerman (19/226)
BN Ian Kennedy (20/231)
BN Brandon League (22/255)
BN Ryan Raburn (21/250)
BN Gaby Sanchez (23/274)
I'm always reluctant to draft pitchers early due to the seemingly high injury risk and the even more prevalent risk of unpredictability, but this is probably the first season where I've ever drafted nine position players before even looking at a hurler. The result was an extremely balanced offense and a pitching staff which should still be strong provided I can scrape together some saves and get lucky with wins. I made the decision to stockpile starters with breakout potential so that even if a couple of guys bust, I'll hopefully be covered.
Perhaps the most surprising pick I got to make was Votto 10th overall. I mean, wow! He out Pujols-ed Pujols last year and I expect similar production in 2011. So how did I get Votto so low in the first round? Well, Adrian Gonzalez went second overall, Carlos Gonzalez went eighth, and Carl Crawford went ninth. All great players to be sure, but I'm in the camp that prefers Votto at this point.
Taking Holliday 15th was something I might not normally do, but I love the reliable four category contribution with a few steals thrown in. With McCutchen and Heyward I gave myself two more outfielders who could provide value across the board, especially if they slip into their primes early. At this point I needed to fill my scarce positions as best I could, as all of the top options were off the board long ago and the mid-range options were starting to get taken as well.
Obviously my closing corps are terrible, but I like my peripheral-heavy starting staff. Even without wins, I expect my team to do well in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. The only one of my starting pitchers I hadn't even banked on getting was Marcum, though I like him and I'm far from disappointed.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Wainwrong
For a team that already has to deal with its best player, the whole sport's best player, spending an entire season in contractual limbo, the loss of one of the best starting pitchers in the game is quite the cruel twist of fate. The Cardinals were entering the 2011 season with their starting rotation representing a real strength. Now? Well, not really. The issue isn't so much that Chris Carpenter is now once again considered the team's ace (though he's certainly more of a number two in his mid-30s), it's that the 40 percent of the Cards' starts are going to come from the guy who was previously slotted to be the number five starter and a guy who was previously slotted to start in Memphis.
Am I right about that? Are the Cardinals not going to do anything about the gaping whole that Adam Wainwrig
ht's messed up arm has left in its wake? According to TLR, that's exactly the case. La Russa was quoted as saying that the answer will not come from outside the organization, that the Cardinals have what they need right at home. Clearly he and I have different definitions of what the word "answer" means. I'm not saying that the team should trade valuable parts for a rental starter, but I am saying it's going to take a miracle for this team to keep up with the 2010 division champion Reds and the revamped Brewers. Even before Wainwright went down, this thing was looking like a dead heat between those two teams and the Cardinals. So where does that leave St. Louis now? It's too soon to say, but I intend to predict a third place finish.
We all obviously know that this news is going to cost the Cardinals a few wins in 2011, but which in-house option is going to be the least awful?
Ian Snell has obviously always had the stuff to succeed at the Major League level; in fact, he actually did for a while in 2007. Problem is, Snell is also considered to be crazy and incapable of learning from anyone, so Dave Duncan's Dumbledore dust might not even be able to fix him.
Kyle McClellan has finally bettered his peripherals to the point where he's a useful reliever, but there's no way anyone could safely project him to succeed as a starter.
Miguel Batista can play the guitar and do magic tricks or something, but he can't pitch.
I hate PJ Walters and will never have anything good to say about him. His name is PJ; that's ridiculous.
Simply put, this isn't 2010; there's no exciting option like Jaime Garcia. Me? I guess I would rip my hair out, pick McClellan, and hope for the improbable best.
So what, if you're the St. Louis Cardinals, do you do? Going into the season, the offense was middling and the pitching staff was strong. Now middling seems to describe an entire team that could easily finish 81-81 to a tee. Is the answer to simply sit back and hope for some accidental breakout seasons? I don't think. After all, why should we be certain Carpenter and Garcia won't incur injuries of their own? That said, I really don't know what I would do in Mozeliak's shoes. Perhaps I would spend my time writing letters to Lance Lynn asking him to suddenly project as more than a four starter and Shelby Miller asking him to become Future Shelby right now. There simply aren't any expendable, useful parts to trade for anything resembling a replacement. It looks like all the Cards can do is play the horrifying wait-and-see game.
Am I right about that? Are the Cardinals not going to do anything about the gaping whole that Adam Wainwrig
ht's messed up arm has left in its wake? According to TLR, that's exactly the case. La Russa was quoted as saying that the answer will not come from outside the organization, that the Cardinals have what they need right at home. Clearly he and I have different definitions of what the word "answer" means. I'm not saying that the team should trade valuable parts for a rental starter, but I am saying it's going to take a miracle for this team to keep up with the 2010 division champion Reds and the revamped Brewers. Even before Wainwright went down, this thing was looking like a dead heat between those two teams and the Cardinals. So where does that leave St. Louis now? It's too soon to say, but I intend to predict a third place finish.We all obviously know that this news is going to cost the Cardinals a few wins in 2011, but which in-house option is going to be the least awful?
Ian Snell has obviously always had the stuff to succeed at the Major League level; in fact, he actually did for a while in 2007. Problem is, Snell is also considered to be crazy and incapable of learning from anyone, so Dave Duncan's Dumbledore dust might not even be able to fix him.
Kyle McClellan has finally bettered his peripherals to the point where he's a useful reliever, but there's no way anyone could safely project him to succeed as a starter.
Miguel Batista can play the guitar and do magic tricks or something, but he can't pitch.
I hate PJ Walters and will never have anything good to say about him. His name is PJ; that's ridiculous.
Simply put, this isn't 2010; there's no exciting option like Jaime Garcia. Me? I guess I would rip my hair out, pick McClellan, and hope for the improbable best.
So what, if you're the St. Louis Cardinals, do you do? Going into the season, the offense was middling and the pitching staff was strong. Now middling seems to describe an entire team that could easily finish 81-81 to a tee. Is the answer to simply sit back and hope for some accidental breakout seasons? I don't think. After all, why should we be certain Carpenter and Garcia won't incur injuries of their own? That said, I really don't know what I would do in Mozeliak's shoes. Perhaps I would spend my time writing letters to Lance Lynn asking him to suddenly project as more than a four starter and Shelby Miller asking him to become Future Shelby right now. There simply aren't any expendable, useful parts to trade for anything resembling a replacement. It looks like all the Cards can do is play the horrifying wait-and-see game.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Rough Draft, Part One
I intend to participate in three fantasy baseball drafts this spring. The final and ultimate one is a competitive league my brother and I co-manage, while the other two are largely something I do on Yahoo! Fantasy Sports solely as warm-up exercises.
My plan has been much the same for the past couple of years: do one straight draft rotisserie public league and one auction rotisserie league. The straight draft league emulates the format we;ll be subjected to in late March, while the auction league gives me a more specific idea of how fantasy owners are valuing players going into the season.
I'm going to write up all three of these drafts on this here blog giving my own take on how things went. My first go at it, the auction draft I mentioned, took place just hours ago. Before I get into it, I'll give you a brief synopsis of the league rules.
This one's a 12 team league in which AL and NL players are fair game. We all started with $260 to fill 28 spots. These spots include two catchers, a first baseman, a second baseman, a third baseman, a shortstop, five outfielders, a corner infielder (first or third), a middle infielder (second or short), a utility player (any batter), nine pitchers (starters or relievers), and five bench sports (anyone I want who really does play baseball for a living). The sickest part about it is the need to have two catchers. I mean, seriously, there are barely two good catchers alive.
We are judged in batting average, home runs, RBI (yuck), runs scored (ew), stolen bases (whatever), wins (yuckier), ERA, WHIP, saves (Rod Beck), and strikeouts.
With all that in mind, here's my team:
C Brian McCann $23
C AJ Pierzynski $1
1B Ryan Howard $34
CI Derrek Lee $1
3B Pedro Alvarez $10
2B Aaron Hill $2
MI Placido Polanco $1
SS Stephen Drew $10
OF Matt Kemp $29
OF Shin-Soo Choo $26
OF Jason Heyward $21
OF Grady Sizemore $9
OF Jay Bruce $16
UT Nick Swisher $6
P Tommy Hanson $14
P Dan Haren $8
P Chris Carpenter $10
P Max Scherzer $7
P Brett Anderson $4
P Ricky Nolasco $2
P Francisco Cordero $3
P David Aardsma $1
P Brandon Lyon $1
BN Jordan Zimmerman $2
BN Brandon League $1
BN Scott Rolen $1
BN Magglio Ordonez $1
BN Ian Kennedy $5
I really don't know what to think of these guys. I was hesitant to spend on the absolute top-tier guys because of price tags that often exceeded $40, but then I felt the need to overpay Ryan Howard for reliable production in the power categories.
There were some players I thought I could get some value on that I simply didn't. For whatever the reason, I thought A-Rod might slip in for $5 less than he should simply based on his decline and the general hatred most people hold for him. I was most certainly wrong, as I thought I might have him for around $25 when a riot ensued. By the time the dust cleared, I had shattered glass stuck in my forehead and someone had paid $37 for him. As my hopes of getting a good, proven third baseman started to wane, I thought I'd throw out Adrian Beltre and get him for like $10. No one really thinks Adrian Beltre can hit, but he doesn't have to in order to put up decent numbers in Texas. Just ask Michael Young.* Once again, I was dead wrong and Beltre went for $26. Seriously! $26! Based on that, you don't need me to tell you that Ryan Zimmerman sold for $34 and Evan Longoria sold for a number not yet defined by modern science.
*I don't care if Michael Young gets traded. The only other place he'd even be able to hit is Colorado, and he makes $16 million a year!
It wasn't just third base that was giving me fits, though. I stood by and watched the handful of elite middle infielders go for a combined $54 million before completely freezing up and letting Dustin Pedroia go for $26. I still wish I'd hit the "Bid $27" icon. As for catcher, I wound up getting McCann for $23 (right around spot-on value) because I was faced with taking him or risking an overbid on an unproven commodity like Santana or Wieters.
As my infield woes continued, I decided to assemble a group of guys in my head to go out and get so long as it made sense. This contingent would be comprised of players who I felt could really earn a lot more than what I was going to pay them if things broke right. None were really sure things. In fact, the surest thing would've been Martin Prado, but he wound up around $16, a price I couldn't afford after paying Matt Kemp like it was 2009 and paying Ryan Howard like he was good enough to eat in Albert Pujols' restaurant that will be torn down after he signs with the Cubs. The other fellows that made up my group were Stephen Drew and Pedro Alvarez, both of whom could easily have $20 seasons for me. By the end I was left gasping for air and grasping at straws. And by straws I mean Placido Polanco. As for Aaron Hill, I actually like that pick and feel I'll get a good return on my $2 investment.
There are some areas of my team I really like despite all of my whining. Let's start with my outfield. Kemp is such a good bet to rack up homers and steals that I don't even hate paying $29 for him. Choo is a fantasy monster, what with his across the board excellence, and there's no longer a chance that he has to enlist in the Korean military instead of playing for the Indians. He was one of my favorite picks solely because of the stability he offers. I'm of the belief that Jay Bruce will finally go nuts this season, and $9 is worth it to see if Grady Sizemore can come back and reestablish himself. Add in Heyward, who will likely take another step forward this season, and that's a nice little group.
I also feel fantastic about that pitching staff. I honestly spent more on pitching than I expected to because I was able to get value on guys like Hanson, Carpenter, and Haren. I had no idea any of them were going to end up on my team, but for a combined $32 I'm certainly not disappointed. I also managed to get several of my personal favorites (Scherzer/Nolasco/Anderson) while limiting my closer expenditures to cheap guys who didn't cost me anything. I added Brandon League to my bench to save myself from further Aardsma injury troubles. The only starter I was saddened about not getting was Brandon Morrow, who went for $3 after my laptop powered down due to my own laziness in bringing the AC adapter to the living room.
Looking at my roster now, I'm not so sure I'm as disappointed as I initially was. Maybe it's the lack of overt star power that had me down. After all, I could've spent a few more bucks to turn Ryan Howard into Adrian Gonzalez or get a corner infielder who has hit a home run before. Nonetheless, I think this team will have a shot so long as I can be savvy with my moves and savvy with the usage of the word savvy.
I'm tentatively scheduling my straight draft for tomorrow afternoon, so look for a full report on that one then.
My plan has been much the same for the past couple of years: do one straight draft rotisserie public league and one auction rotisserie league. The straight draft league emulates the format we;ll be subjected to in late March, while the auction league gives me a more specific idea of how fantasy owners are valuing players going into the season.
I'm going to write up all three of these drafts on this here blog giving my own take on how things went. My first go at it, the auction draft I mentioned, took place just hours ago. Before I get into it, I'll give you a brief synopsis of the league rules.
This one's a 12 team league in which AL and NL players are fair game. We all started with $260 to fill 28 spots. These spots include two catchers, a first baseman, a second baseman, a third baseman, a shortstop, five outfielders, a corner infielder (first or third), a middle infielder (second or short), a utility player (any batter), nine pitchers (starters or relievers), and five bench sports (anyone I want who really does play baseball for a living). The sickest part about it is the need to have two catchers. I mean, seriously, there are barely two good catchers alive.
We are judged in batting average, home runs, RBI (yuck), runs scored (ew), stolen bases (whatever), wins (yuckier), ERA, WHIP, saves (Rod Beck), and strikeouts.
With all that in mind, here's my team:
C Brian McCann $23
C AJ Pierzynski $1
1B Ryan Howard $34
CI Derrek Lee $1
3B Pedro Alvarez $10
2B Aaron Hill $2
MI Placido Polanco $1
SS Stephen Drew $10
OF Matt Kemp $29
OF Shin-Soo Choo $26
OF Jason Heyward $21
OF Grady Sizemore $9
OF Jay Bruce $16
UT Nick Swisher $6
P Tommy Hanson $14
P Dan Haren $8
P Chris Carpenter $10
P Max Scherzer $7
P Brett Anderson $4
P Ricky Nolasco $2
P Francisco Cordero $3
P David Aardsma $1
P Brandon Lyon $1
BN Jordan Zimmerman $2
BN Brandon League $1
BN Scott Rolen $1
BN Magglio Ordonez $1
BN Ian Kennedy $5
I really don't know what to think of these guys. I was hesitant to spend on the absolute top-tier guys because of price tags that often exceeded $40, but then I felt the need to overpay Ryan Howard for reliable production in the power categories.
There were some players I thought I could get some value on that I simply didn't. For whatever the reason, I thought A-Rod might slip in for $5 less than he should simply based on his decline and the general hatred most people hold for him. I was most certainly wrong, as I thought I might have him for around $25 when a riot ensued. By the time the dust cleared, I had shattered glass stuck in my forehead and someone had paid $37 for him. As my hopes of getting a good, proven third baseman started to wane, I thought I'd throw out Adrian Beltre and get him for like $10. No one really thinks Adrian Beltre can hit, but he doesn't have to in order to put up decent numbers in Texas. Just ask Michael Young.* Once again, I was dead wrong and Beltre went for $26. Seriously! $26! Based on that, you don't need me to tell you that Ryan Zimmerman sold for $34 and Evan Longoria sold for a number not yet defined by modern science.
*I don't care if Michael Young gets traded. The only other place he'd even be able to hit is Colorado, and he makes $16 million a year!
It wasn't just third base that was giving me fits, though. I stood by and watched the handful of elite middle infielders go for a combined $54 million before completely freezing up and letting Dustin Pedroia go for $26. I still wish I'd hit the "Bid $27" icon. As for catcher, I wound up getting McCann for $23 (right around spot-on value) because I was faced with taking him or risking an overbid on an unproven commodity like Santana or Wieters.
As my infield woes continued, I decided to assemble a group of guys in my head to go out and get so long as it made sense. This contingent would be comprised of players who I felt could really earn a lot more than what I was going to pay them if things broke right. None were really sure things. In fact, the surest thing would've been Martin Prado, but he wound up around $16, a price I couldn't afford after paying Matt Kemp like it was 2009 and paying Ryan Howard like he was good enough to eat in Albert Pujols' restaurant that will be torn down after he signs with the Cubs. The other fellows that made up my group were Stephen Drew and Pedro Alvarez, both of whom could easily have $20 seasons for me. By the end I was left gasping for air and grasping at straws. And by straws I mean Placido Polanco. As for Aaron Hill, I actually like that pick and feel I'll get a good return on my $2 investment.
There are some areas of my team I really like despite all of my whining. Let's start with my outfield. Kemp is such a good bet to rack up homers and steals that I don't even hate paying $29 for him. Choo is a fantasy monster, what with his across the board excellence, and there's no longer a chance that he has to enlist in the Korean military instead of playing for the Indians. He was one of my favorite picks solely because of the stability he offers. I'm of the belief that Jay Bruce will finally go nuts this season, and $9 is worth it to see if Grady Sizemore can come back and reestablish himself. Add in Heyward, who will likely take another step forward this season, and that's a nice little group.
I also feel fantastic about that pitching staff. I honestly spent more on pitching than I expected to because I was able to get value on guys like Hanson, Carpenter, and Haren. I had no idea any of them were going to end up on my team, but for a combined $32 I'm certainly not disappointed. I also managed to get several of my personal favorites (Scherzer/Nolasco/Anderson) while limiting my closer expenditures to cheap guys who didn't cost me anything. I added Brandon League to my bench to save myself from further Aardsma injury troubles. The only starter I was saddened about not getting was Brandon Morrow, who went for $3 after my laptop powered down due to my own laziness in bringing the AC adapter to the living room.
Looking at my roster now, I'm not so sure I'm as disappointed as I initially was. Maybe it's the lack of overt star power that had me down. After all, I could've spent a few more bucks to turn Ryan Howard into Adrian Gonzalez or get a corner infielder who has hit a home run before. Nonetheless, I think this team will have a shot so long as I can be savvy with my moves and savvy with the usage of the word savvy.
I'm tentatively scheduling my straight draft for tomorrow afternoon, so look for a full report on that one then.
Introductions Are In Order
Hi, there. My name is Brian Vaughan. I've been writing about baseball in small, spastic bursts for the past six years or so, and this is my 47th attempt at keeping a steady writing project centered on the sport going for a legitimate amount of time.
Below you can see an image of me threatening a toy and then read an accompanying list of things you should know about me.
-I'm a St. Louis Cardinals fan
-My favorite Cardinals of all-time include the likes of Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Ray Lankford, and Chris Carpenter. I reserve the right to add to this list. The only subtraction I can imagine happening involves Albert turning down an eight year, $240 million extension, punching a pew full of babies, and then telling the media he hates pizza. Even then, I think he's staying.
-I'm happily married and happily have four cats. I unhappily have two dogs and this one fish I don't care about.
-I owe much of my advanced baseball knowledge to the people at Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, FanGraphs (dry as they may be), and my own persistent mulling over of everyone's Baseball Reference page.
-I think the sweetest sound in the world is Mike Shannon after beer number 11 (so basically the third inning of a day game).
-I will unabashedly weave in cultural references with my baseball analysis, especially those that deal with music or movies.
-I play rotisserie baseball even though I realize it contradicts by sabermetric leanings. I don't care; it's fun, and that's what baseball should be.
-I intend to supplement my work here with awful, truly awful, MS Paint artwork and strange pictures I find.
-I'm 26, so I'm stupid.
That's all I've got for you in terms of introducing myself. Next time around around, I'm getting right down to business.
Below you can see an image of me threatening a toy and then read an accompanying list of things you should know about me.
-I'm a St. Louis Cardinals fan
-My favorite Cardinals of all-time include the likes of Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Ray Lankford, and Chris Carpenter. I reserve the right to add to this list. The only subtraction I can imagine happening involves Albert turning down an eight year, $240 million extension, punching a pew full of babies, and then telling the media he hates pizza. Even then, I think he's staying.
-I'm happily married and happily have four cats. I unhappily have two dogs and this one fish I don't care about.
-I owe much of my advanced baseball knowledge to the people at Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, FanGraphs (dry as they may be), and my own persistent mulling over of everyone's Baseball Reference page.
-I think the sweetest sound in the world is Mike Shannon after beer number 11 (so basically the third inning of a day game).
-I will unabashedly weave in cultural references with my baseball analysis, especially those that deal with music or movies.
-I play rotisserie baseball even though I realize it contradicts by sabermetric leanings. I don't care; it's fun, and that's what baseball should be.
-I intend to supplement my work here with awful, truly awful, MS Paint artwork and strange pictures I find.
-I'm 26, so I'm stupid.
That's all I've got for you in terms of introducing myself. Next time around around, I'm getting right down to business.
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