Rough Draft, Part Two

Last night was home to my second preliminary draft, a straight draft featuring 12 teams. Once again, players from both leagues were fair game. The categories we play with are standard 5x5 rotisserie, and I was saddled with the 10th overall pick, a position I never care for. After all, I don't get (in theory) that great of a first pick and I don't get the benefit of two rapid-fire picks in a row like the first and last drafters do. Next I will list my team along with the round and overall pick I selected each player.

C Geovany Soto (12/135)
1B Joey Votto (1/10)
2B Rickie Weeks (5/58)
3B Pedro Alvarez (7/82)
SS Stephen Drew (8/87)
OF Matt Holliday (2/15)
OF Andrew McCutchen (3/34)
OF Jason Heyward (4/39)
UT Jay Bruce (6/63)
UT Jose Tabata (18/207)
SP Brett Anderson (9/106)
SP Shaun Marcum (10/111)
RP Brandon Lyon (15/178)
RP Fernando Rodney (16/183)
P Ricky Nolasco (13/154)
P Jeremy Hellickson (14/159)
P Brett Myers (17/202)
P Ted Lilly (11/130)
BN Jordan Zimmerman (19/226)
BN Ian Kennedy (20/231)
BN Brandon League (22/255)
BN Ryan Raburn (21/250)
BN Gaby Sanchez (23/274)

I'm always reluctant to draft pitchers early due to the seemingly high injury risk and the even more prevalent risk of unpredictability, but this is probably the first season where I've ever drafted nine position players before even looking at a hurler. The result was an extremely balanced offense and a pitching staff which should still be strong provided I can scrape together some saves and get lucky with wins. I made the decision to stockpile starters with breakout potential so that even if a couple of guys bust, I'll hopefully be covered.

Perhaps the most surprising pick I got to make was Votto 10th overall. I mean, wow! He out Pujols-ed Pujols last year and I expect similar production in 2011. So how did I get Votto so low in the first round? Well, Adrian Gonzalez went second overall, Carlos Gonzalez went eighth, and Carl Crawford went ninth. All great players to be sure, but I'm in the camp that prefers Votto at this point.

Taking Holliday 15th was something I might not normally do, but I love the reliable four category contribution with a few steals thrown in. With McCutchen and Heyward I gave myself two more outfielders who could provide value across the board, especially if they slip into their primes early. At this point I needed to fill my scarce positions as best I could, as all of the top options were off the board long ago and the mid-range options were starting to get taken as well.

Obviously my closing corps are terrible, but I like my peripheral-heavy starting staff. Even without wins, I expect my team to do well in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. The only one of my starting pitchers I hadn't even banked on getting was Marcum, though I like him and I'm far from disappointed.

Wainwrong

For a team that already has to deal with its best player, the whole sport's best player, spending an entire season in contractual limbo, the loss of one of the best starting pitchers in the game is quite the cruel twist of fate. The Cardinals were entering the 2011 season with their starting rotation representing a real strength. Now? Well, not really. The issue isn't so much that Chris Carpenter is now once again considered the team's ace (though he's certainly more of a number two in his mid-30s), it's that the 40 percent of the Cards' starts are going to come from the guy who was previously slotted to be the number five starter and a guy who was previously slotted to start in Memphis.

Am I right about that? Are the Cardinals not going to do anything about the gaping whole that Adam Wainwright's messed up arm has left in its wake? According to TLR, that's exactly the case. La Russa was quoted as saying that the answer will not come from outside the organization, that the Cardinals have what they need right at home. Clearly he and I have different definitions of what the word "answer" means. I'm not saying that the team should trade valuable parts for a rental starter, but I am saying it's going to take a miracle for this team to keep up with the 2010 division champion Reds and the revamped Brewers. Even before Wainwright went down, this thing was looking like a dead heat between those two teams and the Cardinals. So where does that leave St. Louis now? It's too soon to say, but I intend to predict a third place finish.

We all obviously know that this news is going to cost the Cardinals a few wins in 2011, but which in-house option is going to be the least awful?

Ian Snell has obviously always had the stuff to succeed at the Major League level; in fact, he actually did for a while in 2007. Problem is, Snell is also considered to be crazy and incapable of learning from anyone, so Dave Duncan's Dumbledore dust might not even be able to fix him.

Kyle McClellan has finally bettered his peripherals to the point where he's a useful reliever, but there's no way anyone could safely project him to succeed as a starter.

Miguel Batista can play the guitar and do magic tricks or something, but he can't pitch.

I hate PJ Walters and will never have anything good to say about him. His name is PJ; that's ridiculous.

Simply put, this isn't 2010; there's no exciting option like Jaime Garcia. Me? I guess I would rip my hair out, pick McClellan, and hope for the improbable best.

So what, if you're the St. Louis Cardinals, do you do? Going into the season, the offense was middling and the pitching staff was strong. Now middling seems to describe an entire team that could easily finish 81-81 to a tee. Is the answer to simply sit back and hope for some accidental breakout seasons? I don't think. After all, why should we be certain Carpenter and Garcia won't incur injuries of their own? That said, I really don't know what I would do in Mozeliak's shoes. Perhaps I would spend my time writing letters to Lance Lynn asking him to suddenly project as more than a four starter and Shelby Miller asking him to become Future Shelby right now. There simply aren't any expendable, useful parts to trade for anything resembling a replacement. It looks like all the Cards can do is play the horrifying wait-and-see game.

Rough Draft, Part One

I intend to participate in three fantasy baseball drafts this spring. The final and ultimate one is a competitive league my brother and I co-manage, while the other two are largely something I do on Yahoo! Fantasy Sports solely as warm-up exercises.

My plan has been much the same for the past couple of years: do one straight draft rotisserie public league and one auction rotisserie league. The straight draft league emulates the format we;ll be subjected to in late March, while the auction league gives me a more specific idea of how fantasy owners are valuing players going into the season.

I'm going to write up all three of these drafts on this here blog giving my own take on how things went. My first go at it, the auction draft I mentioned, took place just hours ago. Before I get into it, I'll give you a brief synopsis of the league rules.

This one's a 12 team league in which AL and NL players are fair game. We all started with $260 to fill 28 spots. These spots include two catchers, a first baseman, a second baseman, a third baseman, a shortstop, five outfielders, a corner infielder (first or third), a middle infielder (second or short), a utility player (any batter), nine pitchers (starters or relievers), and five bench sports (anyone I want who really does play baseball for a living). The sickest part about it is the need to have two catchers. I mean, seriously, there are barely two good catchers alive.

We are judged in batting average, home runs, RBI (yuck), runs scored (ew), stolen bases (whatever), wins (yuckier), ERA, WHIP, saves (Rod Beck), and strikeouts.

With all that in mind, here's my team:

C Brian McCann $23
C AJ Pierzynski $1
1B Ryan Howard $34
CI Derrek Lee $1
3B Pedro Alvarez $10
2B Aaron Hill $2
MI Placido Polanco $1
SS Stephen Drew $10
OF Matt Kemp $29
OF Shin-Soo Choo $26
OF Jason Heyward $21
OF Grady Sizemore $9
OF Jay Bruce $16
UT Nick Swisher $6
P Tommy Hanson $14
P Dan Haren $8
P Chris Carpenter $10
P Max Scherzer $7
P Brett Anderson $4
P Ricky Nolasco $2
P Francisco Cordero $3
P David Aardsma $1
P Brandon Lyon $1
BN Jordan Zimmerman $2
BN Brandon League $1
BN Scott Rolen $1
BN Magglio Ordonez $1
BN Ian Kennedy $5

I really don't know what to think of these guys. I was hesitant to spend on the absolute top-tier guys because of price tags that often exceeded $40, but then I felt the need to overpay Ryan Howard for reliable production in the power categories.

There were some players I thought I could get some value on that I simply didn't. For whatever the reason, I thought A-Rod might slip in for $5 less than he should simply based on his decline and the general hatred most people hold for him. I was most certainly wrong, as I thought I might have him for around $25 when a riot ensued. By the time the dust cleared, I had shattered glass stuck in my forehead and someone had paid $37 for him. As my hopes of getting a good, proven third baseman started to wane, I thought I'd throw out Adrian Beltre and get him for like $10. No one really thinks Adrian Beltre can hit, but he doesn't have to in order to put up decent numbers in Texas. Just ask Michael Young.* Once again, I was dead wrong and Beltre went for $26. Seriously! $26! Based on that, you don't need me to tell you that Ryan Zimmerman sold for $34 and Evan Longoria sold for a number not yet defined by modern science.

*I don't care if Michael Young gets traded. The only other place he'd even be able to hit is Colorado, and he makes $16 million a year!

It wasn't just third base that was giving me fits, though. I stood by and watched the handful of elite middle infielders go for a combined $54 million before completely freezing up and letting Dustin Pedroia go for $26. I still wish I'd hit the "Bid $27" icon. As for catcher, I wound up getting McCann for $23 (right around spot-on value) because I was faced with taking him or risking an overbid on an unproven commodity like Santana or Wieters.

As my infield woes continued, I decided to assemble a group of guys in my head to go out and get so long as it made sense. This contingent would be comprised of players who I felt could really earn a lot more than what I was going to pay them if things broke right. None were really sure things. In fact, the surest thing would've been Martin Prado, but he wound up around $16, a price I couldn't afford after paying Matt Kemp like it was 2009 and paying Ryan Howard like he was good enough to eat in Albert Pujols' restaurant that will be torn down after he signs with the Cubs. The other fellows that made up my group were Stephen Drew and Pedro Alvarez, both of whom could easily have $20 seasons for me. By the end I was left gasping for air and grasping at straws. And by straws I mean Placido Polanco. As for Aaron Hill, I actually like that pick and feel I'll get a good return on my $2 investment.

There are some areas of my team I really like despite all of my whining. Let's start with my outfield. Kemp is such a good bet to rack up homers and steals that I don't even hate paying $29 for him. Choo is a fantasy monster, what with his across the board excellence, and there's no longer a chance that he has to enlist in the Korean military instead of playing for the Indians. He was one of my favorite picks solely because of the stability he offers. I'm of the belief that Jay Bruce will finally go nuts this season, and $9 is worth it to see if Grady Sizemore can come back and reestablish himself. Add in Heyward, who will likely take another step forward this season, and that's a nice little group.

I also feel fantastic about that pitching staff. I honestly spent more on pitching than I expected to because I was able to get value on guys like Hanson, Carpenter, and Haren. I had no idea any of them were going to end up on my team, but for a combined $32 I'm certainly not disappointed. I also managed to get several of my personal favorites (Scherzer/Nolasco/Anderson) while limiting my closer expenditures to cheap guys who didn't cost me anything. I added Brandon League to my bench to save myself from further Aardsma injury troubles. The only starter I was saddened about not getting was Brandon Morrow, who went for $3 after my laptop powered down due to my own laziness in bringing the AC adapter to the living room.

Looking at my roster now, I'm not so sure I'm as disappointed as I initially was. Maybe it's the lack of overt star power that had me down. After all, I could've spent a few more bucks to turn Ryan Howard into Adrian Gonzalez or get a corner infielder who has hit a home run before. Nonetheless, I think this team will have a shot so long as I can be savvy with my moves and savvy with the usage of the word savvy.

I'm tentatively scheduling my straight draft for tomorrow afternoon, so look for a full report on that one then.

Introductions Are In Order

Hi, there. My name is Brian Vaughan. I've been writing about baseball in small, spastic bursts for the past six years or so, and this is my 47th attempt at keeping a steady writing project centered on the sport going for a legitimate amount of time.

Below you can see an image of me threatening a toy and then read an accompanying list of things you should know about me.


-I'm a St. Louis Cardinals fan
-My favorite Cardinals of all-time include the likes of Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Ray Lankford, and Chris Carpenter. I reserve the right to add to this list. The only subtraction I can imagine happening involves Albert turning down an eight year, $240 million extension, punching a pew full of babies, and then telling the media he hates pizza. Even then, I think he's staying.
-I'm happily married and happily have four cats. I unhappily have two dogs and this one fish I don't care about.
-I owe much of my advanced baseball knowledge to the people at Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, FanGraphs (dry as they may be), and my own persistent mulling over of everyone's Baseball Reference page.
-I think the sweetest sound in the world is Mike Shannon after beer number 11 (so basically the third inning of a day game).
-I will unabashedly weave in cultural references with my baseball analysis, especially those that deal with music or movies.
-I play rotisserie baseball even though I realize it contradicts by sabermetric leanings. I don't care; it's fun, and that's what baseball should be.
-I intend to supplement my work here with awful, truly awful, MS Paint artwork and strange pictures I find.
-I'm 26, so I'm stupid.

That's all I've got for you in terms of introducing myself. Next time around around, I'm getting right down to business.