Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Rough Draft, Part One

I intend to participate in three fantasy baseball drafts this spring. The final and ultimate one is a competitive league my brother and I co-manage, while the other two are largely something I do on Yahoo! Fantasy Sports solely as warm-up exercises.

My plan has been much the same for the past couple of years: do one straight draft rotisserie public league and one auction rotisserie league. The straight draft league emulates the format we;ll be subjected to in late March, while the auction league gives me a more specific idea of how fantasy owners are valuing players going into the season.

I'm going to write up all three of these drafts on this here blog giving my own take on how things went. My first go at it, the auction draft I mentioned, took place just hours ago. Before I get into it, I'll give you a brief synopsis of the league rules.

This one's a 12 team league in which AL and NL players are fair game. We all started with $260 to fill 28 spots. These spots include two catchers, a first baseman, a second baseman, a third baseman, a shortstop, five outfielders, a corner infielder (first or third), a middle infielder (second or short), a utility player (any batter), nine pitchers (starters or relievers), and five bench sports (anyone I want who really does play baseball for a living). The sickest part about it is the need to have two catchers. I mean, seriously, there are barely two good catchers alive.

We are judged in batting average, home runs, RBI (yuck), runs scored (ew), stolen bases (whatever), wins (yuckier), ERA, WHIP, saves (Rod Beck), and strikeouts.

With all that in mind, here's my team:

C Brian McCann $23
C AJ Pierzynski $1
1B Ryan Howard $34
CI Derrek Lee $1
3B Pedro Alvarez $10
2B Aaron Hill $2
MI Placido Polanco $1
SS Stephen Drew $10
OF Matt Kemp $29
OF Shin-Soo Choo $26
OF Jason Heyward $21
OF Grady Sizemore $9
OF Jay Bruce $16
UT Nick Swisher $6
P Tommy Hanson $14
P Dan Haren $8
P Chris Carpenter $10
P Max Scherzer $7
P Brett Anderson $4
P Ricky Nolasco $2
P Francisco Cordero $3
P David Aardsma $1
P Brandon Lyon $1
BN Jordan Zimmerman $2
BN Brandon League $1
BN Scott Rolen $1
BN Magglio Ordonez $1
BN Ian Kennedy $5

I really don't know what to think of these guys. I was hesitant to spend on the absolute top-tier guys because of price tags that often exceeded $40, but then I felt the need to overpay Ryan Howard for reliable production in the power categories.

There were some players I thought I could get some value on that I simply didn't. For whatever the reason, I thought A-Rod might slip in for $5 less than he should simply based on his decline and the general hatred most people hold for him. I was most certainly wrong, as I thought I might have him for around $25 when a riot ensued. By the time the dust cleared, I had shattered glass stuck in my forehead and someone had paid $37 for him. As my hopes of getting a good, proven third baseman started to wane, I thought I'd throw out Adrian Beltre and get him for like $10. No one really thinks Adrian Beltre can hit, but he doesn't have to in order to put up decent numbers in Texas. Just ask Michael Young.* Once again, I was dead wrong and Beltre went for $26. Seriously! $26! Based on that, you don't need me to tell you that Ryan Zimmerman sold for $34 and Evan Longoria sold for a number not yet defined by modern science.

*I don't care if Michael Young gets traded. The only other place he'd even be able to hit is Colorado, and he makes $16 million a year!

It wasn't just third base that was giving me fits, though. I stood by and watched the handful of elite middle infielders go for a combined $54 million before completely freezing up and letting Dustin Pedroia go for $26. I still wish I'd hit the "Bid $27" icon. As for catcher, I wound up getting McCann for $23 (right around spot-on value) because I was faced with taking him or risking an overbid on an unproven commodity like Santana or Wieters.

As my infield woes continued, I decided to assemble a group of guys in my head to go out and get so long as it made sense. This contingent would be comprised of players who I felt could really earn a lot more than what I was going to pay them if things broke right. None were really sure things. In fact, the surest thing would've been Martin Prado, but he wound up around $16, a price I couldn't afford after paying Matt Kemp like it was 2009 and paying Ryan Howard like he was good enough to eat in Albert Pujols' restaurant that will be torn down after he signs with the Cubs. The other fellows that made up my group were Stephen Drew and Pedro Alvarez, both of whom could easily have $20 seasons for me. By the end I was left gasping for air and grasping at straws. And by straws I mean Placido Polanco. As for Aaron Hill, I actually like that pick and feel I'll get a good return on my $2 investment.

There are some areas of my team I really like despite all of my whining. Let's start with my outfield. Kemp is such a good bet to rack up homers and steals that I don't even hate paying $29 for him. Choo is a fantasy monster, what with his across the board excellence, and there's no longer a chance that he has to enlist in the Korean military instead of playing for the Indians. He was one of my favorite picks solely because of the stability he offers. I'm of the belief that Jay Bruce will finally go nuts this season, and $9 is worth it to see if Grady Sizemore can come back and reestablish himself. Add in Heyward, who will likely take another step forward this season, and that's a nice little group.

I also feel fantastic about that pitching staff. I honestly spent more on pitching than I expected to because I was able to get value on guys like Hanson, Carpenter, and Haren. I had no idea any of them were going to end up on my team, but for a combined $32 I'm certainly not disappointed. I also managed to get several of my personal favorites (Scherzer/Nolasco/Anderson) while limiting my closer expenditures to cheap guys who didn't cost me anything. I added Brandon League to my bench to save myself from further Aardsma injury troubles. The only starter I was saddened about not getting was Brandon Morrow, who went for $3 after my laptop powered down due to my own laziness in bringing the AC adapter to the living room.

Looking at my roster now, I'm not so sure I'm as disappointed as I initially was. Maybe it's the lack of overt star power that had me down. After all, I could've spent a few more bucks to turn Ryan Howard into Adrian Gonzalez or get a corner infielder who has hit a home run before. Nonetheless, I think this team will have a shot so long as I can be savvy with my moves and savvy with the usage of the word savvy.

I'm tentatively scheduling my straight draft for tomorrow afternoon, so look for a full report on that one then.

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